Men's college basketball in 2024: 68 bold predictions

The men’s college basketball season tips off Monday night with all but six AP Top 25 teams in action. To celebrate the start of the new season, here are 68 bold predictions that are sure to come true (unless they don’t).

1. Duke’s Cooper Flagg will be this college basketball season’s biggest story, bigger than Mark Pope trying to reinvigorate Kentucky, bigger than John Calipari’s fresh start at Arkansas, bigger than UConn’s bid for a historic three-peat. The presumed No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA Draft is the rare prospect capable of siphoning mainstream attention away from the NFL and enticing curious viewers to tune into college basketball before March.

2. Anyone expecting Flagg to put up Carmelo Anthony- or Kevin Durant-like numbers at 17 years old is setting the bar too high. The aspect of the 6-foot-9 forward’s game that has the most room for growth is his ability to create shots attacking off the dribble. Most of Flagg’s 16.3 points per game at Montverde Academy last season came from crashing the offensive glass, sinking spot-up jumpers and cutting deftly without the ball. Expect more of the same at Duke.

3. That doesn’t mean that Flagg is overhyped — far from it, in fact. Where Flagg wows scouts the most is with his defensive versatility, his ability to contest a jump shot on the perimeter and rotate to protect the rim. He’s also a relentless rebounder, a willing passer and the sort of fierce competitor who won’t hesitate to sacrifice his body chasing after a loose ball headed out of bounds. He’ll impact winning at Duke in all sorts of ways that don’t show up in a box score.

4. Team outside the AP preseason Top 25 who could surprise: Xavier. Injuries stripped Xavier of two of its most important frontcourt players last season, but forwards Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter are healthy again. The Musketeers are deep, fast-paced, experienced and loaded with shooters. It’s easy to envision Sean Miller guiding this group to a top-four Big East finish and a favorable NCAA tournament seed.

5. Preseason Top 25 team who could disappoint: Rutgers. The arrival of potential top-five draft picks Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey make this the most anticipated Rutgers basketball season in recent memory. The trouble is that the Scarlet Knights underwent a drastic roster rebuild this offseason and retained just one of last year’s nine leaders in minutes played. Rutgers will be a must-see for fans and scouts, but this team is likely to be wildly inconsistent. The Top 25 feels like a ceiling outcome, not the most likely one.

6. Even without Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, three of college basketball’s best-known players will be the highest-profile returning superstars of the women’s game. More casual fans are familiar with Paige Bueckers, JuJu Watkins and Hannah Hidalgo than, say, Mark Sears, Hunter Dickinson and RJ Davis.

7. Tony Bennett and Jay Wright won’t be the last high-profile men’s basketball coaches to retire in their prime. The job is more stressful and all-consuming now that the transfer portal has produced unfettered free agency and the loosening of NIL rules has turned recruiting battles into bidding wars. Not every coach can stomach monitoring the portal every minute of every day, haggling with agents and re-recruiting their own rosters. Some will inevitably decide that no amount of money and prestige is worth that lifestyle.

8. The answer isn’t turning back the clock. College basketball is fairer now that the players who help create generational wealth for coaches like Bennett can claim a piece of that money for themselves. The blame rests on the NCAA and its member institutions for refusing to embark on any proactive reform until the court system forced their hands. Now the sport is sure to lose more of its most well-respected teachers until changes are made to regulate the chaos.

9. What do you get when you combine a roster reminiscent of some of John Calipari’s deepest Kentucky teams and a modern offensive system that prioritizes spacing and 3-point shooting? The answer is 2024-25 Alabama. The Crimson Tide return five rotation players from last year’s Final Four team and add four coveted transfers and a pair of five-star freshmen. If Nate Oats can persuade his players to sacrifice for the good of the team and to give a consistent defensive effort, Alabama could win its first national title.

10. The SEC will be college basketball’s deepest conference. There are few off nights in a league whose projected 12th-place team, Georgia, features a future lottery pick in its frontcourt and a pair of sophomore guards with breakout potential.

11. The Big 12 will remain college basketball’s best conference. The projected top tier of Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, Baylor and Arizona will double as five of the nation’s top dozen teams this season.

12. This is finally the year that the Big Ten … nah, not happening. The Big Ten, as so often happens, is loaded with lots of good teams but no great ones. The league could easily send eight teams to the NCAA tournament but none to the Elite Eight.

13. Can Dan Hurley attain men’s college basketball’s first three-peat since John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty won seven national championships in a row from 1967-1973? UConn is a serious threat despite replacing four starters from the team that cruised through last year’s NCAA tournament bracket. The center position is where UConn is the most unproven. Either the Huskies will need 40 minutes from Samson Johnson and transfer Tarris Reed, or forward Alex Karaban may have to play some small-ball five.

14. There will come a time this season when Hurley calls out AP voters for not anointing his team a unanimous No. 1. He was already grumbling about the Huskies coming off back-to-back titles yet only being ranked No. 3 in the preseason AP Top 25. To Hurley, UConn’s greatest enemy is complacency. As a result, he’ll twist himself into knots seeking out perceived slights to motivate his team.

15. Freshmen who will make the biggest impact this season: Cooper Flagg (Duke), Dylan Harper (Rutgers), Boogie Fland (Arkansas)

16. Freshmen ranked outside the Rivals top 10 who will make the biggest impact this season: Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois), Asa Newell (Georgia), Liam McNeeley (UConn)

17. John Calipari needed a fresh start. Arkansas needed a jolt of excitement. Kentucky needed to part ways with a coach whose approach had grown stale but whose albatross of a contract made it impossible to fire him. Calipari fleeing to Fayetteville last spring will be viewed as a win-win-win no matter how the Wildcats or Razorbacks fare this season.

18. Will Kentucky have a better season under Mark Pope? Or will Arkansas have bragging rights after Calipari’s debut season? The boring truth is that both project similarly as teams that should comfortably make the NCAA tournament but aren’t likely to contend for the Final Four. Arkansas has more top-tier talent. Kentucky’s modern style of play is more likely to maximize the array of shooters acquired via the transfer portal.

19. Secret scrimmage losses that are a sign of things to come: Georgetown 66, Virginia 55 and VCU 71, Virginia 49. Yes, Virginia is still reeling from Tony Bennett’s abrupt retirement. Yes, the Cavaliers didn’t have their full complement of players. But these box scores were ominous, especially the poor shooting numbers.

20. Secret scrimmage loss that’s more fluke than omen: San Diego State 72, UCLA 67. This was a surprising score given how shorthanded the Aztecs were, but the Bruins reportedly were tinkering with rotations. UCLA will live up to preseason expectations once Mick Cronin fully incorporates his six incoming transfers.

21. ACC breakout star: Elliot Cadeau, North Carolina

22. American Athletic Conference breakout star: Jayden Reid, South Florida

23. Big East breakout star: Hassan Diarra, UConn

24. Big Ten breakout star: Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue

25. Big 12 breakout star: Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

26. SEC breakout star: Blue Cain and Silas Demary Jr., Georgia

27. Once again, the ACC’s lower- and middle-tier teams will struggle in non-league play. Once again, the league will receive fewer than expected NCAA bids. Once again ACC coaches will cry foul after the league sends two or more teams to the Elite Eight. That pattern isn’t going to change until more of the league’s name-brand programs behind Duke and North Carolina perform up to expectations.

28. The additions of Stanford, Cal and SMU will hurt ACC men’s basketball more than they help, especially in the short-term. Stanford has made the NCAA tournament once since 2008. Cal last advanced beyond the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend more than a quarter century ago. SMU is ascending but still has more rungs to climb.

29. It used to be that newly hired coaches could count on administrators giving them at least four years to turn around struggling programs. Not anymore. The transfer portal has made it possible to revitalize a talent-bereft roster in a single offseason. As a result, more coaches will lose their jobs after just two or three seasons if they aren’t showing progress.

30. This should be a slower coaching carousel than last year’s, if only because last year’s spun at such dizzying speed and resulted in so many high-profile coaches changing jobs.

31. The coach in the most trouble this year is Villanova’s Kyle Neptune. So far Jay Wright’s hand-picked successor hasn’t come close to maintaining his high standard. In Neptune’s debut season, Villanova stumbled to a 17-17 record and finished sixth in the Big East. The following year, the Wildcats lost to the likes of Penn, Drexel and St. Joseph’s in non-league play and again finished tied for sixth in the Big East. The talent level isn’t any better this year — and Neptune may not get a chance if Villanova misses a third straight NCAA tournament.

32. Other coaches under pressure to win this season: Mike Woodson (Indiana), Bobby Hurley (Arizona State), Johnny Dawkins (UCF), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Penny Hardaway (Memphis), Wayne Tinkle (Oregon State)

33. Coach who will be in demand next spring: McNeese’s Will Wade. It’s a safe bet that Wade will be linked with power-conference jobs despite his well-documented history of running afoul of NCAA rules. Wade went 30-4 in his debut season at McNeese, toppling VCU and Michigan along the way. The Cowboys will be a low-major monster again this season led by returners Christian Shumate and Javohn Garcia and high-major-caliber transfers Sincere Parker (Saint Louis) and Brandon Murray (Ole Miss).

34. Another coach who will be in demand next spring: Grand Canyon’s Bryce Drew. Expect the former Valparaiso NCAA tournament hero to be one of the hottest names in next offseason’s coaching cycle. He led Grand Canyon to a 30-5 season last year that included a regular-season victory over San Diego State and an NCAA tournament upset of Saint Mary’s. With four starters back, including 20-point-per-game guard Tyon Grant-Foster, the Antelopes are a preseason top 60 team in most metrics.

35. With six rotation players returning and high-scoring transfers Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle coming aboard, Gonzaga may pile up points even more effortlessly than it did a year ago. The trouble is that Gonzaga still lacks guards who can pressure the ball and stay in front of their man or rim protectors who can make up for those shortcomings. Gonzaga’s defensive efficiency slipped outside the top 50 nationally the past two seasons. Unless that changes, it’s difficult to envision Gonzaga returning to a third Final Four.

36. Who’s the best non-Gonzaga team outside college basketball’s five power conferences? The best choice might be Mountain West favorite Boise State, which returns two of last season’s top three scorers — Tyson Degenhart and O’Mar Stanley — and welcomes a promising collection of eight newcomers. The Broncos are vying for their fourth straight NCAA bid but are still seeking their first NCAA tournament victory.

37. San Diego State has been a mid-major standard bearer for years, but this season will test the program’s winning culture. The Aztecs must replace all five starters from the team that lost to eventual national champion UConn in the Sweet 16. They also will be without injured projected starter Reece Waters for at least the first month of the season. Could San Diego State sink to No. 77 in the country, as one respected computer metric projects? Doubtful. But the Aztecs aren’t a lock to extend their streak of NCAA tournament appearances either.

38. Football schools that will have more success on the hardwood this season: Alabama, Auburn, Florida

39. Basketball schools that will have more success on the gridiron this season: Memphis, UNLV

40. School that will be unusually miserable in both: Sorry, Florida State.

41. Why should you believe in preseason No. 1 Kansas a year after the Jayhawks started atop the polls, only to finish five games out of first place in the Big 12 and fail to survive the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend? Because Bill Self spent the offseason addressing Kansas’ threadbare depth and lack of shooting. This year’s Jayhawks may not finish No. 1, but they aren’t so vulnerable if injuries strike, nor should they struggle to space the floor with the addition of guards Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen, two of the portal’s top perimeter shooters.

42. Houston will finish in the top five of KenPom’s final rankings for the fifth straight year and advance to a fifth consecutive Sweet 16. Every rotation player is back from last year’s 32-win team besides do-it-all point guard Jamal Shead. As long as Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan can effectively step in for Shead, this team seems like a very safe bet to be among college basketball’s best yet again.

43. Only three former Pac-12 programs — Arizona, UCLA and Oregon — will make the NCAA tournament. The rest are in for a rude awakening just like the former Pac-12 football programs have already received this season.

44. Smart college basketball programs will embrace the trend of investing in a general manager to help them navigate college basketball’s new landscape. The trend started two years ago when Duke hired former Nike sports marketing executive Rachel Baker to help players with personal branding and NIL partnerships. Other programs have since hired general managers with a diverse set of responsibilities, from talent evaluation, to managing relationships with player agents, to fundraising.

45. Most likely to lead college basketball in SportsCenter Top 10 appearances: Michigan State sophomore Coen Carr. It’s no accident Carr’s Big Ten peers unanimously chose him as the conference’s best dunker. The promising 6-foot-5 sophomore can fly.

46. In a prove-it year, UCF coach Johnny Dawkins has assembled the ultimate boom-bust roster to try to compete in the formidable Big 12. Former decorated prospects Mikey Williams, JJ Taylor and Dior Johnson are equal parts talented and combustible, as is forward Benny Williams, who Syracuse dismissed last February after two-plus tumultuous seasons. The guess here is at least one of the four isn’t on UCF’s roster by the end of the regular season.

47. Seven months after NC State’s Cinderella run from a No. 10 seed in the ACC tournament to the Final Four, the Wolfpack are poised to turn back into pumpkins. Four of last year’s five starters are gone including charismatic low-post threat DJ Burns and standout guard DJ Horne. The newcomers show promise — particularly Brandon Huntley-Hatfield as a pick-and-roll big and a rim protector. Still, this feels more like a team the caliber of “regular-season NC State” than “March NC State.”

48. Team that will take the biggest jump from last year: Indiana. Here’s the bad news for Indiana coach Mike Woodson: He’s unlikely to get a fifth season in Bloomington unless he returns to the NCAA tournament. Here’s the good news for Woodson: He has built a roster with the talent to do that and more. The preseason top-25 Hoosiers boast three returning starters and heralded transfers Oumar Ballo (Arizona), Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford). Rice and Malik Reneau combined for 41 points and Indiana held Tennessee to 30.5% shooting in a 66-62 exhibition victory last Sunday.

49. Team that will fall the furthest from last year: Indiana State. The Sycamores are likely to fall from the top of the national mid-major pecking order to the bottom half of the Valley standings after losing coach Josh Schertz to Saint Louis and all five starters to the transfer portal. New coach Matthew Graves didn’t inherit the job until mid-April, complicating Indiana State’s efforts to replace all that outgoing talent.

50. Champions Classic predictions: Kansas over Michigan State, Duke over Kentucky

51. Players Era Tournament prediction: Alabama over Creighton

52. Maui Invitational prediction: UConn over Iowa State

53. Battle 4 Atlantis: Arizona over Gonzaga

54. Legends Classic prediction: Texas Tech over Texas

55. Baha Mar Championship prediction: Baylor over Tennessee

56. Greenbrier Tip-Off: Pittsburgh over Wisconsin

57. ESPN Events Invitational: Wake Forest over Minnesota

58. For a school that clearly feels it’s too good for the American Athletic Conference, Memphis seldom actually proves it on the basketball floor. The Tigers have yet to finish higher than second under seventh-year coach Penny Hardaway. Expect that trend to continue this season with Memphis again boasting the league’s most talented roster but struggling to put forth the consistent effort required to win a conference title.

59. Don’t be surprised if Kadary Richmond isn’t just the nation’s best transfer this season. He might be one of college basketball’s best players, period. Last season, Richmond led Seton Hall to a surprising fourth-place finish in the Big East, averaging 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.2 steals. This past offseason, he headed across the Hudson River to St. John’s, where he’ll be the centerpiece of a team projected to make the NCAA tournament.

60. Five other transfers who will make a big impact this season: Tucker Devries (Drake to West Virginia), Myles Rice (Washington State to Indiana), Coleman Hawkins (Illinois to Kansas State), Great Osobor (Utah State to Washington), Norchad Omier (Miami to Baylor)

61. It’s no accident that so many of college basketball’s top returning players are undersized scoring guards. This will be an NIL era trend with staying power. In previous years, fringe NBA prospects like R.J. Davis, Mark Sears, Caleb Love and Wade Taylor likely would have turned pro last offseason. Today, their earning potential in college might meet or exceed what they can make on an NBA two-way contract or in the G-League.

62. At worst, Louisville should be competitive in Pat Kelsey’s debut season. At best, a return to the NCAA tournament isn’t out of the question if a revamped roster coalesces quickly enough. Either way, it will be a step in the right direction for a tradition-rich program that bottomed out under the leadership of former coach Kenny Payne.

63. Player whose name will receive the most attention during TV broadcasts next season: Rhode Island guard Always Wright

64. Last year, Robbie Avila became an Internet cult hero thanks to his trademark goggles, his Nikola Jokic-esque skill set and nicknames like “Larry Blurred” and “Cream Abdul-Jabbar.” His fame will only increase this season if he can lead Saint Louis to the NCAA tournament after his 28-win Indiana State team was a Selection Sunday snub last March.

65. Small-conference team with the most Cinderella potential this March: Princeton. Returning stars Caden Pierce and Xaivian Lee could have transferred to practically any power-conference program they wanted this offseason. Instead they both opted to return to a Princeton program that is favored to win the Ivy League again this season and received two votes in the AP preseason Top 25.

66. Cincinnati coach Wes Miller will remind everyone why he was the choice of many in North Carolina circles to succeed Roy Williams three years ago. The Bearcats will return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019 under former coach Mick Cronin — and they’ll win at least a game or two.

67. Early Final Four prediction: Alabama, Duke, UConn, Houston

68. Most of these preseason predictions will probably be wrong. The most fun part of college basketball is that it always defies expectations.