Trump and Harris in Tight Race Across Battleground States

According to a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling/Hill released on July 25, Trump holds a slim lead over Harris by five points in Arizona, two points in Georgia, one point in Michigan, and two points in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, both candidates are tied at 47%.

Except for Arizona, Trump's lead is within the margin of error, indicating that these races are highly competitive.

The survey results also highlight that Harris has outperformed President Joe Biden in these crucial states. Harris has a five-point lead over Biden in Georgia, four points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and three points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

A national poll aggregation by The Hill shows Trump leading Harris with 48% to 46%, a narrower gap compared to his lead over Biden, which stands at 47% to 43%.

Following Biden's announcement on July 21 that he would not seek re-election and his endorsement of Harris, the Vice President swiftly began her campaign efforts. On July 23, Harris visited Milwaukee, Wisconsin, marking her first campaign stop since Biden's withdrawal. Many senior Democratic lawmakers have since expressed their support for her.

"Support for Harris is now comparable to Biden's support in March. Young voters are shifting towards Harris, with her gaining 16 points in Arizona, 8 points in Georgia, 5 points in Michigan, 11 points in Pennsylvania, and 1 point in Wisconsin compared to earlier this month," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The Emerson College Polling/Hill survey was conducted from July 22-23 among 4,095 adults. Emerson College Polling is renowned for its accuracy, especially in battleground states, with a 93% accuracy rate in the 2018 midterm elections.

A national survey by New York Times/Siena College, also released on July 25, supports the findings that Harris fares better against Trump than Biden. This poll shows Trump leading Harris by 48% to 46% among registered voters. In a previous poll three weeks ago, Trump led Biden by 8%, with figures at 49% to 41%.

The New York Times/Siena College survey was conducted among 1,142 registered voters nationwide.